2015考研英语阅读理解模拟试题（十八）

　　2015考研英语复习正在如火如荼的进行中，考研专家建议可以按考研题型分别进行重点复习，考研英语阅读理解是考研英语中分值最高的，新东方在线小编特地整理了2015考研英语阅读理解模拟试题供大家模拟练习，希望大家认真做题，错题着重看解析及译文，经过练习阅读理解能力必能有所提高。

　　十八、全球经济通胀

　　Like the disco era it dominated, stagflation has a distinctive beat: slow growth, rising inflation, high oil prices and weak labour markets. In the 1970s this nasty combination haunted the global economy. Could it be making a comeback?

　　Today’s world economy does seem to be playing some similar tunes. In the statement accompanying its latest interest-rate hike on May 3rd, America’s Federal Reserve fretted about both price pressure and a slowdown in spending. On May 4th, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged, but worried aloud about oil prices and slowing growth.

　　The evidence is mounting that global growth has slowed. In America, output grew by an annualised 3.1% in the first three months of 2005, the slowest pace for two years. More recent figures, from weak retail sales to soggy consumer confidence, suggest this soft patch may be getting softer by the day. In Britain, the latest numbers—in retail sales and manufacturing—point to weaker growth. And in the euro zone, sluggish economies are looking ever more lethargic.

　　Yet even as growth is slowing, price pressures are looming. In America, consumer prices rose 3.1% in the year to March, up from 1.7% a year ago. In Britain, inflation jumped unexpectedly in March. And in the euro zone, consumer prices are still rising faster than the 2% goal that the European Central Bank targets. With output slowing and inflation stubborn, it is small wonder that the concerns about stagflation are back in fashion.

　　In fact, today’s version of stagflation bears scant resemblance to the 1970s. In 1979, for instance, America’s core inflation, which excludes oil and food, was rising at over 7% a year, while the economy grew barely more than 1%. Recent core inflation, at 2.2%, is only just above the central bank’s comfort zone, while GDP growth is pretty close to the economy’s sustainable rate. There is a bit of “flation”, in other words, but not much sign of “stag”. The euro zone, by contrast, has plenty of stagnation, but—despite the ECB’s nervousness—there is little sign that its inflation is getting out of control.

　　Just because things are not as bad as the 1970s does not, by itself, give much cause for comfort, however. How far history repeats itself hinges on two other factors. The first is central bankers’ determination to retain their credibility as inflation fighters. The 1970s stagflation resulted, in large part, from extended periods of loose monetary policy pursued to accommodate the demand-crippling effect of oil shocks by printing money. The credibility-obsessed folk at the ECB clearly have no intention of repeating that mistake.

　　But the Fed’s (federal reserve) governors have played a riskier game. They have, thus far, run an extremely loose monetary policy—even after this week’s rise, real interest rates are barely positive. But thanks to the central bank’s reserve of inflation-fighting credibility, long-term inflation expectations have barely shifted. At issue is how long that remains the case. At the very least, the measured march to higher rates must continue unabated.

　　The other wild card combines labour costs and productivity growth. In the 1970s, productivity growth fell sharply and unexpectedly. Added to this, strong trade unions, little international competition and those accommodating central bankers created a pernicious wage-price spiral. There is little of this dynamic today. Although productivity growth has slowed from its recent peaks, it has not slumped. Global competition has left little room for excessive wage demands. This suggests that a return to classic stagflation is unlikely.

　　1.The first sentence in Paragraph 2 means today’s world economy seems to be _____.

　　[A] following a familiar business cycle pattern [B] characterized by continuous change

　　[C] affected by uncontrollable inflation [D] a combination of output slowing and inflation

　　2.Slow economic growth nowadays is evident in all of the following EXCEPT _____.

　　[A] soggy consumer confidence [B] weak retails sales [C] low interest rate [D] slow output growth

　　3.The stagnation in the 1970s, as mentioned in the passage, resulted from _____.

　　[A] the decreasing flow of currency [B] slow march to higher rates

　　[C] economy’s sustainable rate [D] vicious wage-price spiral

　　4.Now a return to classic stagflation is unlikely because _____.

　　[A] price pressure is easing in spite of slow economic growth [B] inflation rate has not gone out of control

　　[C] the central bank has strict monetary policy [D] productivity growth has been steadily rising

　　5.The author’s attitude towards the current economic situation seems to be _____.

　　[A] objective [B] optimistic [C] pessimistic [D] confused

　　答案：1.D 2.C 3.D 4.B 5.A

　　核心词汇或超纲词汇

　　(1)stagflation(n.)通货滞胀，同时存在高通货膨胀率和高失业率的萧条的经济

　　(2)haunt(v.)(鬼魂)出没;常到(某地);时常萦绕心头;使困窘

　　(3)hike(n./v.)远足;突然或急剧(的)上升、上涨、增加

　　(4)fret(n./v.)(使)烦恼，(使)焦急;(使)腐蚀，(使)磨损

　　(5)mount(v.)攀登;上升，增加

　　(6)soggy(a.)湿透的;沉闷的，乏味的

　　(7)sluggish(a.)行动迟缓的;懒散的;经济不景气[萧条]的~market不景气的市场

　　(8)lethargic(a.)昏睡的，瞌睡的

　　(9)hinge(n.)(门、盖等的)铰链;关键(v.)(on)依赖，以……为转移

　　(10)credibility(n.)可信性，信用;credit(n.)信任, 信用;credible(a.)可信的, 可靠的

　　(11)wild card 这个词来自于纸牌戏的“万能牌”，它是可代替任何一张牌的王牌。用做比喻意时指“影响力大的因素”。

　　全文翻译

　　就像迪斯科流行的年代一样，经济“滞胀”也有独特的鼓点：经济缓慢增长，通货膨胀加剧，油价走高以及就业市场低迷。上世纪70年代，经济停滞与通货膨胀并存的局面萦绕着全球经济的发展：现在是否又回到当初的状况?

　　今天的世界经济似乎在弹奏同样的曲调。因物价压力和消费减缓而焦头烂额的美联储在5月3日作出最近一次提升利率的声明。5月4日，欧洲中央银行虽然宣布将保持利率不变，但是油价和低增长却仍然是他们的心头大患。

　　所有的证据都直指全球经济的疲软。在美国，2005年头三个月与去年同期相比生产增长了3.1%，这是两年来的最低水平。从疲软的零售销售到低迷的消费者信心，更多新近的数据都表明这个“疲软地带”正一天比一天松软。在英国，最新的零售和工业生产数据也显示出经济增长疲软。在欧元区，低迷的经济从来没有这样让人昏昏欲睡。

　　然而即使增长疲软，物价压力却正在逐步显现。在美国，消费物价从去年到今年3月攀升了3.1%，比去年增长了1.7%。在英国，3月份通货膨胀意外地跳高。在欧元区，消费指数串升依然要比欧洲央行设定的2%目标快的多。随着生产的疲软和持续的通货膨胀，对于滞胀再次回归的担忧并不出人意料。

　　实际上，今天的经济停滞膨胀和上世纪70年代不具有很大的相似性。比如，1979年美国核心通货膨胀(不包括石油和食物的价格)，一年的上涨率高于7%，而经济仅增长了不足1%。最近的核心通货膨胀为2.2%，只略高于中央银行的可接受范围。与此同时GDP增长与经济可持续增长率非常接近。换一种说法就是，经济有点“通货膨胀”，但并没有出现“停滞”。欧元区正好相反，滞涨现象十分明显。尽管欧洲中央银行极度担心，但是并没有迹象表明通货膨胀已经到了无法控制的地步。

　　然而，仅仅因为一切没有70年代那样糟糕，并不能说明我们就可以放松警惕。历史还需要多久重演还要由另外两个因素决定。首先是中央银行对付通货膨胀、保持他们的可信度的决心。70年代的滞胀很大程度上是为顾及因石油冲击而受到严重损害的需求效应，采取的印钞措施的长期宽松的货币政策而造成的。欧洲中央银行受到可信度困扰的人们显然无意犯重复的错误。

　　但是美联储的官员们玩了另外一个更危险的游戏。到目前为止，他们采取了一个极其松散的货币政策——即使这周能够上升，真实的利率也不容乐观。但是因为央行对对抗通货膨胀信任度的保留，长期的通货膨胀预期几乎没有扭转。有争议的是保持这种状况能有多长时间。迈向高利率的缓慢趋势不大可能继续保持不减弱。

　　另一张万能牌包括劳动力成本和生产力增长。在70年代，生产力出人意料地负增长。此外，强大的贸易联盟，国际竞争和那些乐善好施的中央银行共同创造了一个工资和物价螺旋上升的恶性循环。尽管生产力增长比近年的最高值有所减缓，它并没有急转直下。全球化竞争没有为过分的工资需求留下任何讨价还价的空间。这表明目前是不可能回到过去那种经济滞胀的情况的。

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