2015考研英语阅读英文原刊《经济学人》货币或紧或松没关系

　　2015考研英语复习正是强化复习阶段，考研英语阅读在考研英语中占了40分，所以考研英语阅读是英语科目中重要的一项。新东方名师范猛老师曾建议过考研生需要坚持每天泛读10-15分钟的英文原刊。强烈推荐了杂志《经济学人》杂志中的文章也是考研英语的主要材料来源.希望考研考生认真阅读，快速提高考研英语阅读水平。

　　Monetary policy

　　货币政策

　　Tight, loose, irrelevant

　　或紧或松没有关系

　　Interest rates do not seem to affect investment aseconomists assume

　　利率似乎并不像经济学家假设的那样影响投资

　　IT IS Economics 101. If central bankers want to spureconomic activity, they cut interest rates. If they want to dampen it, they raise them. Theassumption is that, as it becomes cheaper or more expensive for businesses and householdsto borrow, they will adjust their spending accordingly. But for businesses in America, at least, anewstudy* suggests that the accepted wisdom on monetary policy is broadly (but not entirely)wrong.

　　上过经济学101课程的人都知道：如果中央银行想刺激经济，那么它会降低利率;而如果它想遏制经济过度膨胀，就会提高利率。我们这样说的前提假设是：当企业家或家庭贷款的成本增加或降低时，他们会相应地调整支出。但是一项最新的调查显示，对于企业家们，至少是美国的企业家，这个公认的货币政策原理在经常是错误的(但不完全错误)。

　　Using data stretching back to 1952, the paper concludes that market interest rates, whichcentral banks aim to influence when they set their policy rates, play some role in how muchfirms invest, but not much. Other factors—most notably how profitable a firm is and how wellits shares do—are far more important (see chart). A government that wants to pep up theeconomy, says S.P. Kothari of the Sloan School of Management, one of the authors, wouldhave more luck with other measures, such as lower taxes or less onerous regulation.

　　使用1952年以来的数据，这篇论文得出这样一个结论：央行希望通过制定利率政策来控制市场利率，这个市场利率对企业投资具有一定影响作用，但作用并不大。而其他因素，尤其是企业获利能力和股票收益情况，则更加显著地影响投资。其中一名来自斯隆管理学院的作者S.P. Kothari说道：如果政府希望刺激经济，应该多采取除货币政策以外的其他措施，比如降低企业税收、减少企业法律义务。

　　Establishing what drives business investment is difficult, not least because it expands andcontracts far more dramatically than the economy as a whole. These shifts were particularlymanic in the late 1950s (both up and down), mid-1960s (up), and 2000s (down, up, then downagain). Overall, investment has been in slight decline since the early 1980s.

　　建立一种刺激企业投资的机制是很困难的，不仅仅是因为它扩张和相互联系的方式远远比经济整体更加复杂。这种波动在这些时段表现得尤为显著：20世纪50年代末(有上涨也有下跌)、60年代中叶(上涨)、2000年代(先涨后跌，然后又涨)。总体来说，从20世纪80年代早期开始，投资增速就开始慢慢减缓了。

　　Having sifted through decades of data, however, the authors conclude that neither volatility inthe financial markets nor credit-default swaps, a measure of corporate credit risk that tendsto influence the rates firms pay, has much impact. In fact, investment often rises when interestrates go up and volatility increases.

　　然而，通过仔细研究几十年的数据，这篇论文的作者得出这样一个结论：无论是金融市场波动率还是信用违约掉期费率(一个衡量企业信贷风险的指标，通常会影响企业投资所支付的利率)，对企业投资都无显著冲击。实际上，当利率提高、市场波动增强时，企业投资通常会增加。

　　Investment grows most quickly, though, in response to a surge in profits and drops with badnews. These ups and downs suggest shifts in investment go too far and are often ill-timed. Atany rate, they do little good: big cuts can substantially boost profits, but only briefly; bigincreases in investment slightly decrease profits.

　　虽然投资随着繁荣而快速增加，随着经济下滑而快速减少;但是这种波动却表明，投资的变动波幅太大，并且通常是滞后的。不管利率是高是低，投资的变动对经济刺激作用都很小：大幅增加投资确实可以持续促进盈利，但这个作用很小;而大幅减少投资也只能轻微地降低利润。

　　Companies, Mr Kothari says, tend to dwell too much on recent experience when deciding howmuch to invest and too little on how changing circumstances may affect future returns. This isparticularly true in difficult times. Appealing opportunities may exist, and they may be all themore attractive because of low interest rates. That should matter—but the data suggest itdoes not.

　　Kothari先生说，企业在决定投资多少时，往往过多地关注于近期的经验，而很少关注利率变动对未来收益会有何影响。在低谷的时候这种现象更加严重。赚大钱的机会是存在的，并且当利率很低时，投资会变得更具吸引力。利率应当是影响投资的--但数据表明事实并非如此。译者：柯维

文章来源：经济学人

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