2017考研英语拓展阅读：《与中国开战：想不敢想之事》

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2017考研英语拓展阅读：《与中国开战：想不敢想之事》

　　A recently released report from a noted US think tank said that while China will reduce the military gap with the US, a hypothetical war between the two world powers would hurt China more, even as Chinese experts said the report’s publication shows the US’ hard-line attitude toward China.

　　最近美国一个著名智囊团发布了一份报告，表示说尽管中国将会减小和美国的军事差距，但是假如这两个世界大国开战，中国受到的伤害将会更多，而中国专家则表示这份报告的出版显示了美国对中国的强硬态度。

　　The report, "War with China: Thinking through the Unthinkable," published by the Rand Corporation, a research organization that offers public policy recommendations, said that "in 2015, US losses could be a relatively small fraction of forces committed, but still significant; Chinese losses could be much heavier than US losses and a substantial fraction of forces committed," but "China’s anti-access and area-denial will make it increasingly difficult for the US to gain military-operational dominance and victory, even in a long war."

　　这份报告题为《于中国开战：向不敢想之事》，由美国兰德公司出版，该公司是一家提供公共政策建议的研究机构。这份报告指出“如果在2015年开战，美国的损失只是所指挥部队里相对较小的一部分力量，但是仍然很重大;但是中国的损失要比美国的损失大得多，损失了所指挥部队里相当大的一部分力量”，但是“中国的反介入和区域封锁策略将使得美国越来越难以获得军事行动的优势和胜利，即使在长期战争中也是如此。”

　　Therefore, "by 2025, US losses could range from significant to heavy; Chinese losses, while still very heavy, could be somewhat less than in 2015," it said.

　　这份报告指出，因此，“而如果在2025年开战，美国可能会从‘损失重大’发展到‘损失惨重’;而尽管中国的损失仍然会很惨重，但是却可能比2015年的损失要小一些。”

　　Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times that Rand is the representative of US military hardliners. If the report is only for internal use then it is not an issue. However, the publishing of this report will surely affect public opinion and attempts to influence US policy toward China. "Though some people in the US are tough toward China, it is still hard to see the US government starting a war," said Li.

　　外交学院国际关系研究所教授李海东(音)对《环球时报》表示说，兰德公司是美国军方强硬派的代表。如果这份报告之事用于内部使用的话，那么就不是什么大问题。但是，这份报告的出版，必将影响公共舆论，并试图影响美国对华政策。李海东说道：“虽然美国一些人对中国很强硬，但是美国政府仍然很难发动一场战争。”

　　The report also said although war would harm both economies, damage to China’s could be catastrophic and lasting on the order of a 25-35 percent reduction in China’s GDP in a year-long war, compared with a 10-20 percent drop in the US GDP.

　　兰德报告还指出，尽管战争将会对两个经济体都造成伤害，但是中国遭受的破坏要更加惨重一些，在长达一年的战争中，中国的GDP将会减少25%到35%，而美国只会减少10%到20%。

　　Zhao Xiaozhuo, a research fellow at the Center on China-US Defense Relations of the PLA Academy of Military Science, told the Global Times that it is very hard to say to what extent Rand represents US policy. Rand, just like many official Chinese think tanks, receives research topics, information and financial support from the military and intelligence agencies, and issues reports for the departments.

　　中国人民解放军军事科学院中美防务关系中心研究员赵小卓(音)对《环球时报》表示说，很难说兰德公司在何种程度上代表了美国的政策。就像中国许多官方智囊团一样，兰德公司也是接受来自军方和情报部门的研究课题、情报和资金支持，并为这些部门发布报告。

　　As of November 2015, Rand has published 191 reports related to China, covering politics, the economy, the military, the environment and intellectual rights, according to media reports.

　　据媒体报道，截止2015年11月，兰德公司已经出版了191份与中国有关的报告，内容涉及政治、经济、军事、环境和知识产权。

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