2017考研英语拓展阅读：美国大选预测报道开启

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　　2017考研英语拓展阅读：美国大选预测报道开启

　　Welcome back to The Day in Polls. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump continues to close the gap with Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, with most polls showing the race narrowing, providing Clinton with a slight lead.

　　又是一个票选日，共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普继续追赶，与民主党总统候选人希拉里·克林顿的选票差距正在逐渐缩小，克林顿暂以微弱的优势领先。

　　Trump continues to cut into Clinton’s lead in the Real Clear Politics’s average of state and national polls. Clinton is 4.3 points ahead of Trump as of Sunday morning, down from her 4.6-point advantage Saturday and a 5.2-point lead on Friday. However, both candidates picked up overall support from Saturday, with 47.6 percent of likely and registered voters expressing support for Clinton, an 0.3-point increase, and 43.3 percent of voters backing Trump, an 0.8-point jump.

　　在政治新闻网Real Clear Politics上，特朗普继续削弱克林顿州和全国票选的主导地位，克林顿在周日上午的领先票数已经下降到了4.3个百分点，在星期五领先了5.2个点，周六则只有4.6个百分点。但是两方候选人从周六开始都得到了全方位的支持，有47.6%的注册选民表示了他们对克林顿的支持，比以往上升了0.3个百分点。特朗普则有43.3%的支持者，猛增了0.8个百分点。

　　Clinton’s advantage shows erosion in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Sunday, as well. The Democratic candidate is down to a 5.2-point lead over Trump, with 49.4 percent of likely voters supporting her and 44.2 percent backing Trump. FiveThirtyEight showed a 5.5-point advantage as of Saturday morning. Also, Clinton has a 78.5 percent chance to win the presidency, down from an 80.6 percent chance Saturday. Trump also picked up likely Electoral College votes in the forecast, although FiveThirtyEight still shows Clinton winning the necessary 270 easily: 319 votes to 218.

　　克林顿的领先优势也推翻了FiveThirtyEight预测新闻网周日的预言。民主党候选人选票以49.4%领先特朗普5.2个百分点，特朗普的支持率则有44.2%，FiveThirtyEight周六对外公布预测的是5.5个百分点的领先率。同时，克林顿当选总统的机会也从周六的80.6%下降到了78.5%。在这次预测当中说特朗普也有希望获得选举团的投票，尽管FiveThirtyEight仍表示克林顿将会以319：218的优势轻易赢得这270张选举票。

　　The Upshot’s model may be the most bullish on Clinton’s chances. For the third straight day, the Upshot predicts Clinton has a 91 percent chance to win the presidency. However, it also reports Trump holds a 4-point lead in the swing state of Florida, whose electoral votes are crucial to his path to the White House.

　　The Upshot对克林顿的选举报道应该是最为乐观的。第三次辩论之后，该网站预测克林顿将有91%的可能当选总统。然而它同时也提到特朗普在票数摇摆州佛罗里达的选票中领先了4个点，这对他通往白宫之路至关重要。

　　The ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows just a 1-point race, with 46 percent of likely voters backing Clinton and 45 percent supporting Trump. The poll incorporated responses to Friday’s announcement that the FBI will continue to probe Clinton-related emails, with 60 percent of voters saying it will make no difference in their vote, while 30 percent of likely voters said the news made them less likely to support Clinton.

　　ABC新闻/华盛顿邮报的跟踪选票报道预测了仅1个百分点的差距，克林顿以46%的支持率领先了45%的特朗普。这次选票结果是有将对于星期五发布的关于联邦调查局将继续调查克林顿相关邮件事件的回应纳入在内的，60%的选民表示这不会影响他们的投票，但仍有30%的潜在选民表示这次“邮件门”事件使他们对克林顿的支持度有所降低。

　　Outlier of the day: The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll shows Trump leading, 46.2 percent to 43.8 percent, despite not yet incorporating reactions to the email news. However, the LA Times cautions the poll "probably represents a best-case scenario for the Republican nominee," as "it more heavily represents the views of people who did not vote in 2012 but say they plan to vote this year—a group among whom Trump does well."

　　离群方：The USC Dornsife杂志以及《洛杉矶时报》发起的“黎明”票选则公布的是特朗普以46.2%领先克林顿的43.8%，而且还没有受邮件门回应的影响。洛杉矶时报提醒我们这次的选票有可能是对共和党提名人出现的一次最好的情况。因为它很大程度上代表了未参与2012选举投票而称要在今年参与投票的选民的意见，特朗普在他们身上有很大优势。

　　News From Saturday: Trump and Clinton largely spent Saturday responding to FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress. Trump told supporters in Colorado that Clinton’s alleged "criminal action was willful, deliberate, intentional and purposeful," while Clinton said in Florida that Comey’s letter was "unprecedented, and it’s deeply troubling because voters deserve to get full and complete facts." She urged Comey to "put it all out on the table."

　　星期六的消息称：特朗普和克林顿当天对美国联邦调查局局长詹姆斯·科米写给国会的信件做出了回应。特朗普告诉他在科罗拉多州的支持者，克林顿声称“刑事诉讼都是故意的，有目的的”克林顿在佛罗里达州说过，科米的信是“空穴来风，而且惹了很大麻烦，因为选民们应该知道所有的事实和真相”。她主张让科米把所有相关情况都公之于众。

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