2015考研英语阅读英文原刊《经济学人》美国经济 全是借口

　　The most important special factor has been petrol. Prices jumped from $3 per gallon at the end of December to $3.90 in early May. That has siphoned off much of the purchasing power that consumers should have extracted from December’s tax agreement and subsequent gains in employment. Total consumer spending rose at just a 6.7% annual rate in the three months to the end of April, but most of that increase was eaten up by inflation. Real spending grew by a paltry 2.2%.

　　最为重要的一个特殊因素是石油。一加仑的石油从12月底的三美元涨到5月初的3.9美元。这大大削弱了消费者的购买力，这些购买力本来可以根据12月的税收协议释放出来的，并且可以用来改善就业情况。消费者的总消费量截止到四月底的三个月中仅仅增长了6.7%，但大多数增长量又被通货膨胀抵消了。实际的增长量仅为微小的2.2%。

　　Still, Wall Street expects the economy to perk up in coming months as those special factors begin to fade. Petrol prices have slipped in the past three weeks as monetary policy has tightened in emerging markets. Employment seems still to be rising, albeit at a slower rate. (May figures were to be released after The Economist went to press.) And rebuilding after the floods and tornadoes may deliver a fillip in the second half of the year.

　　不过华尔街的专家们仍然希望在未来的几个月中经济能回暖，因为那些特殊因素正在削弱。由于新兴市场的货币政策缩紧，石油的价格在过去的三周内有所回落。就业率一直在回升，尽管速度较以前更为缓慢。(5月份的数据在《经济学人》付送印刷之后将要发布。)而且洪水以及龙卷风后重建也可以刺激下半年的经济。

　　Yet if one-offs can so easily depress growth, that only underlines how fragile the economy’s underpinnings are. More evidence of that fragility came in the GDP report’s sharp downward revisions to households’ real after-tax incomes in late 2010 and early 2011. It now appears that consumers have maintained their sluggish pace of spending only by saving less. Since GDP measured by income should equal GDP measured by spending, the poor income data suggest the GDP figures may have to be revised down.

　　不过，如果突发事件可以如此轻易的抑制增长，则这只能凸显经济的地基有多么不稳固。有更多的例子来证明这种不稳固，比如2010年底以及2011年初的GDP报告中，家庭实际税后收入大幅下降。现在看来，消费者完全是靠少存钱来维持他们缓慢的消费增长。由于通过收入来计算的GDP应该与通过开销来计算的GDP相同，所以统计收入的糟糕的数据表明GDP数值应该再降低一些。

　　To make matters worse, house prices in March fell toa new post-crisis low. Betsy Graseck of MorganStanley reckons they’ll fall another 10% to 12% overthe next year. That is only one of many reasons shesays banks are cautious about lending: they arealso facing tougher scrutiny of their underwriting byregulators and buyers of their mortgages.

　　三月房价创下金融危机后的新低更是雪上加霜。摩根斯坦利的Besty Graseck认为房价会在明年再降10%-20%。这也只是她说的众多银行借款非常谨慎的原因之一，另外银行也面临来自他们抵押贷款的管制者以及购买者对于包销更为严格的审查。

　　Both Mr Obama and the Republicans are casting about for cheap ways to boost the economy.On May 26th the White House announced it had found several hundred rules it couldeliminate or scale back. The same day, Republicans released a collection of mostly sensibleideas such as passing free-trade agreements and clearing the patent office’s backlog. But theirmain plank is that the federal government slash spending. “Families are tightening their beltsand sticking to a budget—and Washington should too,” said Eric Cantor, the Republicanmajority leader in the House. Maybe so, but spending less when households are in no shape topick up the slack seems a sure-fire way to keep an anaemic recovery off-colour.

　　奥巴马和共和党都在异常努力的寻找便宜的方法来刺激经济。5月26日时白宫宣布他们发现有几百条规定可以被废除或者削弱。同一天，共和党宣布了一系列非常敏感的想法，例如通过自由贸易协议，清理专利办公室积压的工作。不过他们最重要的政策是联邦政府减少开支。“家庭都在勒紧裤腰带严格按照预算生活——华盛顿也应该如此，”共和党众议院多数党领袖Eric Cantor说。也许这样说没错，但当家庭无法提高消费能力时，政府减少开支也是保证这场貌似得了贫血症的经济恢复进程尽快恢复过来无可厚非的方法。

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