2015考研英语阅读复习材料：2014年投资者应留意的14项风险

　　What does 2014 hold for investors?

　　投资者在2014年要注意些什么?

　　The central bet has to be more of the same: easy monetary policy, albeit lower for slightly less long; modest but steady global economic growth, led by the U.S.; further improvements in the euro zone; slightly higher rates of inflation and lower growth in emerging market economies; softer risk-free bond markets, tight spreads on corporate debt and an upward bias to equities though the bull's wild charge is likely to slow.

　　今年的基本情境预期是：宽松货币政策将维持，不过宽松程度有所降低，持续时间也略微减少;在美国经济带领下，全球经济取得温但稳健的增长;欧元区状况进一步改善;通货膨胀率小幅上升，同时新兴市场经济体增速放缓;无风险债券市场继续走软，公司债价差收窄，同时股市维持走高倾向，不过上涨势头可能减弱。人们应据此进行押注。

　　Right now, it looks as though markets are in one of those Goldilocks periods, when everything's just right and nothing could possibly go wrong. But there are substantial risks investors ought not to ignore.

　　目前市场似乎正处风平浪静的阶段，各个领域运转正常，也看不出哪里会出问题。不过，存在一些投资者不应忽略的重要风险。

　　I've categorized them by asset class, though there's plenty of crossover.

　　以下按资产类别列出了这些风险因素，不过许多因素可能同时影响多个资产类别。

　　DEVELOPED EQUITIES

　　发达国家股市

　　1) The U.S. market's boom during 2013 caught everyone off guard and now even some of the most ursine of money managers are factoring in the prospect of yet more dramatic gains. The general argument is that so far mom and pop investors haven't participated in this run and until they do, the market won't peak. But an interesting behavioral study of bubble formation from a few years back showed that when self-identified 'amateur' investors get burned twice by a bubble, they keep clear. Professionals, on the other hand, were shown to get sucked in a third time, thinking they can get out before everyone else. Is this the third bubble?

　　1)美国股市2013年取得的强劲上涨出乎绝大多数人的预料，目前就连一些坚定看跌的基金经理也开始评估市场进一步大幅走高的可能性。市场总体观点是，到目前为止，个人投资者尚未参与这轮上涨，在这些人入市前，股市不会见顶。不过，一项针对以往泡沫形成的有趣行为研究发现，自认为是外行的投资者在经历两次泡沫破裂的打击后就会不再入市。而专业投资者则会第三次进入市场，原因是认为这一次自己能够做到及时脱身。目前是否是第三次泡沫期呢?

　　2) U.S. equities have been underpinned by very high rates of corporate profitability. These profits have, in turn, owed a lot to government deficits and workers' inability to press for higher wages. As government deficits fall and employment growth picks up, those profit margins as a proportion of GDP will start to come down. If those margins fall faster than GDP rises, investors could start to reconsider some of the hefty valuations they've pinned on equities.

　　2)处在极高水平的企业利润率为美国股市本轮上涨提供了支持。企业之所以能取得如此高的利润水平，很大程度上归因于美国政府维持赤字以及劳动者无力要求加薪。随着美国政府赤字缩减，同时就业增长加快，企业利润相对于国内生产总值(GDP)的比例将开始下降。如果企业利润下降速度快于GDP增速，投资者可能开始考虑部分股票高企的估值是否合理。

　　3) As economic growth picks up, so too will bond yields. This will reduce the present value of future income streams and should push down valuation multiples.

　　3)随着经济增长加快，债券收益率上升速度也会加快。这将减少未来收入流的现值，进而压低估值倍率。

　　4) Alternatively, growth could slow as the U.S. economy shows itself to be on a long-run deflationary path, much like Japan. If investors lose faith in the Federal Reserve's ability or willingness to halt the process and the government proves reluctant to use fiscal policy to promote growth, equities could slide.

　　4)也可能出现的情况是，美国经济像日本那样步入长期通货紧缩轨道，从而增长将放缓。如果投资者对于美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：美联储)应对这种局面的能力或意愿失去信心，同时美国政府被证明不愿使用财政政策促进增长，股市可能出现下跌。