2015考研英语阅读复习材料：2014年投资者应留意的14项风险

CORPORATE DEBT

公司债市场

11) Spreads on high yield debt are undoubtedly in bubble territory--investors have chased yield to the point where they seem to think corporate default will never again exist in a world where central banks will always defend their interests. Jeremy Stein, a Fed board member, warned about these risks in a speech. Furthermore, he noted that while a central bank might try macro-prudential policies to restrain market excesses, sometimes they weren't effective. In that case, rates would have to rise to make sure investors got the message. The Fed could yet surprise investors by taking a more aggressive stance on corporate debt and spreads.

11）高收益债息差无疑已经出现泡沫，投资者似乎认为，全球央行总是会捍卫公司利益，公司债绝不会再次违约，因此他们一直在追求高收益。美联储理事会成员Jeremy Stein曾在发表讲话时对这些风险予以警告。此外，他还指出，尽管央行可能试图通过宏观审慎政策来遏制市场的过分行为，但有时效果并不好。在这种情况下，为了确保投资者领会到这一信息，利率则需上升。美联储未来可能对公司债和息差采取更加强硬的立场，这将令让投资者吃惊。

12) Falling corporate profitability or weaker economic growth (see 3 or 4) could yet show up in higher rates of corporate default. That would be a harsh reminder to investors that it might be wise to demand a risk premium on assets.

12）公司盈利能力下滑或经济增长疲弱（见上文第三条和第四条）可能还未导致公司违约几率上升。这就提醒投资者，要求资产风险溢价可能是明智的。

COMMODITIES

大宗商品市场

13) Commodities are a China story. As long as everything's fine with China, commodity prices are likely to stay well supported. The consensus is that China will engineer a soft landing, that it will manage a transition from investment and export-led growth to more domestic demand, that interest rates will normalize and the country's credit expansion will be reined in. That's placing a lot of faith in policymakers who have created a huge investment and real estate bubble and who operate on central planning principles that have been found to be flawed in the past. A Chinese hard landing would hit commodities hard and thus commodity producers like Australia and Canada.

13）大宗商品市场与中国息息相关。只要中国形势一片大好，大宗商品价格就很可能获得良好支撑。目前外界的普遍预期是：中国将引导经济软着陆，并将设法从投资和出口主导的经济增长转向内需主导的增长，利率将正常化且中国信贷扩张势头将会得到遏制。这表明外界对中国决策者充满信心，尽管中国此前滋生了巨大的投资和房地产泡沫，而且过去的中央规划原则被证明存在缺陷。如果中国经济出现硬着陆，则将对大宗商品市场造成沉重打击，进而重创澳大利亚和加拿大等大宗商品生产国。

REAL ESTATE

房地产市场

14) Easy money has inflated property prices world-wide. Some property markets, especially those of commodity producing countries like Australia and Canada, look distinctly bubbly. Others, not least London, have seen hot money inflows from China and other emerging markets. A normalization of interest rate policy, a hard landing in China or even deflationary pressures could yet see some of these markets go pop.

14）宽松货币政策在全球范围内推高了房地产市场价格。一些房地产市场、特别是澳大利亚和加拿大等大宗商品生产国的房地产市场的泡沫似乎极为明显。其他地区，尤其是伦敦，则有来自于中国和其他新兴市场的大量热钱流入。利率政策正常化、中国经济硬着陆、甚至是通货紧缩压力都可能导致其中一些市场泡沫破裂。

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