2015考研英语阅读复习材料：2014年投资者应留意的14项风险

　　5) Investors have placed considerable faith in the European Central Bank's ability to do 'whatever it takes' to guarantee the euro's survival. But 'whatever it takes' implies the sort of massive intervention--not least wholesale purchases of sovereign euro zone debt--that is still political anathema in Germany and other core euro zone countries. Investors should assume the ECB's promise will eventually be tested.

　　5)投资者对于欧洲央行(European Central Bank)“竭尽所能”捍卫欧元的能力给予了很大信任。不过，竭尽所能的含义包括实施一些仍受到德国等欧元区核心国家反对的干预举措，尤其是大规模购买欧元区主权债务。欧洲央行的这一承诺可能最终受到考验。

　　6) Similarly, investors in Japanese equities have placed considerable faith in Abenomics' ability to cure the country's economic ills, not least deflation. Inflation has picked up with a falling yen. But unless rising consumer prices feed through into wage pressures, inflation won't be self-sustaining. Instead, it will create further deflationary pressures and is likely to trigger a sharp correction in equities. If inflation does prove to be self-sustaining, there's likely to be a sharp correction in Japanese government bonds, which is bound to generate volatility in other Japanese asset markets.

　　6)同样，日本股市的投资者也对安倍经济学医治日本经济顽疾(尤其是通货紧缩)的能力给予了信任。在日圆走软的推动下，日本通货膨胀已经上升。不过，除非消费物价的上涨能推动薪资提高，否则通货膨胀的上升难以自我持续。如果薪资无法提高，反而会增加通货紧缩压力，并可能引发股市大幅回落。若通货膨胀的上升确实被证明可能持续，日本国债价格可能大幅走低，而这无疑会导致其他日本资产市场出现波动。

　　EMERGING EQUITIES

　　新兴市场股市

　　7) During the past few years, emerging markets have been blessed with falling inflation and rising growth. This has fed a virtuous circle of appreciating currencies, large capital inflows and yet further falls in inflation. This is coming to an end, and in countries like India, Turkey and Brazil is already over. Economies have run out of capacity for non-inflationary growth at recent rates. Foreign investors are increasingly less keen on supporting large current account deficits. Currencies are falling, inflation is picking up and growth is slowing. Investors are rediscovering political risk. The virtuous circle could quickly turn very vicious indeed.

　　7)过去几年，新兴市场一直享受着通胀下降和经济增长，这催生了本币升值、资金大规模流入及通胀尚未进一步回落等良性循环。不过，这些情况行将结束，而对于印度、土耳其和巴西等国来说，好日子已然过去。新兴经济体已经失去了在近期水平实现无通胀经济增长的能力。越来越多的海外投资者已经不再那么热衷于支持巨额经常项目赤字。汇率水平正在下降，通货膨胀正在上升，经济增长也正在放缓。投资者再次发现这些国家面临着政治风险。之前的良性循环可能很快会变成极为恶性的循环。

　　SOVEREIGN DEBT

　　主权债市场

　　8) The central likelihood is that sovereign bond yields in major developed markets push higher with stronger U.S. growth--Treasuries are the global benchmark after all--though at a controlled pace set by the Federal Reserve. There's a significant risk that Treasuries sell off sharply if investors come to doubt the Fed's lower for longer message--particularly if wage growth starts to pick up strongly with a better jobs market. This would create substantial ripples throughout global bond markets and other asset markets.

　　8)主要发达经济体的主权债收益率很可能随着美国经济强劲增长而进一步上涨，毕竟美国国债是全球债券市场的基准，不过主权债收益率上升速度则由美联储掌控。然而，如果投资者开始质疑美联储在较长时间内维持超低利率的政策，特别是在薪酬增速开始随着就业市场的好转而迅速加快的情况下，那么美国国债则将面临被急剧抛售的巨大风险。这将严重波及到全球债券市场和其他资产市场。

　　9) A smaller risk is that the U.S. recovery has less momentum than it appears to (see 4 above). The result would be a large bond rally and further falls in sovereign yields.

　　9)一个较小的风险是，美国经济复苏的动能并没有看起来那么强劲(见上文第四条)。那么结果就是，债券价格大幅上涨且主权债收益率进一步下跌。

　　10) Spreads in European sovereign debt markets have come down sharply with the ECB's promise to preserve the single currency. That promise has yet to be fully tested (see 5 above). Investors should never underestimate politicians' willingness to make catastrophic choices in pursuit of short-term electoral advantage. Nor should they overestimate people's willingness to shoulder heavy economic costs for very long periods with diminishing rewards at the end. The euro zone crisis has yet to be fully played out.

　　10)欧洲央行捍卫欧元的承诺使得欧洲主权债市场息差急剧收窄。欧洲央行的承诺尚未彻底经受考验(见上文第五条)。投资者永远不应低估决策者为了追求短期选举优势而做出毁灭性选择的意愿，也不应高估在报酬最终递减的情况下人们在很长时间内肩负巨大经济成本的意愿。欧元区危机尚未完全结束。

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