2015考研英语阅读英文原刊《经济学人》：股票与市场准则

　　The importance of the dividend yield is ironic, given the lack of focus on the measure inmost modern investment commentary. Many analysts argue that the dividend has beensuperseded by the share buy-back which (particularly in America) is a more tax-efficientway of returning cash to shareholders. But Robert Arnott of Research Affiliates points outthat, although buy-backs reduce share capital, companies are also finding ways to add to it.Firms issue shares to pay for acquisitions, for example, or to reward executives throughincentive schemes. Historically, net share issuance has been around 2% of total equitycapital a year. This dilution of existing shareholders is part of the reason why real dividendgrowth has been so low, well below GDP growth.

　　股息收益率的重要性却颇具讽刺意味,很多现代投资评论很少关注如何衡量股息收益率。许多分析家认为,股息已被股票回购所取代(特别是在美国),这是一种向股东返还现金而且更加节税的办法。但是研究机构的Robert Arnott指出,尽管回购会减少股本金,公司仍可以找到办法来增加它。 例如，公司通过发行股份以支付收购所需的资金，或通过激励措施来回报高管。从历史上看，一年的净股票发行已经达到总股本的2%左右。为什么真正的股息增长已经如此之低，远远低于GDP的增长，其一部分原因是减少现有股东的持股。

　　As a starting point for estimating the future ERP, this is not encouraging. The currentdividend yield on stockmarkets is lower (at 2.7% in the countries covered by the LBS data)than the historical average. Dividends tend to grow (at best) no faster than GDP, and usuallyslower because of the dilution effect. Nor is there much hope of a boost from a revaluationof the market. Since the yield is low, relative to history, it is more likely that any revaluationwill subtract from returns. In another paper, Cliff Asness of AQR Capital, a hedge-fundgroup, uses his estimates of dividend yield and likely dividend growth to come up with aforecast for future real equity returns in America of around 4% a year.

　　作为估计未来股票风险溢价的起点,这并不让人欢欣鼓舞。股市目前的股息收益率(在LBS数据覆盖的国家,股息收益率为2.7%)低于历史平均水平。在最好的情况下,股息收益率也不如GDP增长快。通常增长缓慢是由于稀释作用的影响。不要对市场的重新评估所带来对股市的推动抱有太大希望。和以往相比,现在的收益率偏低,任何重新评估的推动力很可能从收益中剔除。 AQR资本管理公司(它是对冲基金公司)的CliffAsness在另一篇文章中，利用他们对股息收益率和可能的股息增长的估计，预测出美国未来每年4%左右实际的股权回报。

　　Future imperfect

　　不太美妙的未来

　　Although this figure is lower than the historical average, it still means that equity investorswill earn a risk premium. The real yields on short- and long-term debt are zero, or negativein some cases. Nominal yields are close to historic lows. If the risk-free return is zero, thenthe entire return from equities will count as a risk premium. And a 4% premium would beonly a little below the long-term average for America.

　　尽管这一数据低于历史平均水平，但仍意味着股票投资者能获得风险溢价。短期或长期债券的收益率为零，或在某些情况下是负数。名义收益率接近历史最低水平。如果无风险收益为零，那么全部股票收益将被当作风险溢价。并且4%的溢价仅比美国历史平均水平略低。

　　That still would not be high enough for many pension funds. In America, local-governmentpension funds base their contributions on the assumption that they will earn 8% (innominal terms) on their investment portfolios. Treasury bonds yield 2% at the moment, soa 4% risk premium suggests a nominal return of 6% on equities. That means pension fundswill fall well short of their targeted return.

　　对于许多养老基金来讲，这4%的溢价仍不算高。在美国，当地政府养老基金是建立在他们在投资组合中将获得8%(名义收益)的收益的假设基础之上的。同期的国债收益为2%，因此4%的风险溢价意味着6%的股权名义回报。这就意味着养老基金远没达到它的目标回报。

　　Pension providers have two options: increase contributions or cut benefits. Cutting benefitswill be difficult for many American states since pension rights are legally or constitutionallyguaranteed. So taxes will have to go up or other services will have to be cut. Companies thathave offered pensions linked to final salaries may have to divert money into their pensionschemes, cash that could have been invested to boost the economy. Individuals who rely onprivate pensions (or on so-called defined-contribution benefits, where the company doesnot promise a payout) face the same problem.

　　提供养老金的人有两种选择：要么增加捐款，要么削减福利。削减福利对于大部分美国的州来讲非常困难，因为养老金领取权是合法的或者受宪法保障的。所以不得不在税收上削减或者将其它服务削减。提供与最终薪金相关的养老金的公司不得不把它们原本投资用来刺激经济的钱转投到养老金计划中。依赖私人养老金的个人(或依赖所谓的养老金固定缴纳计划，而公司不承担支付的人)面临同样的问题。

　　Equities are not a miracle asset that will turn measly contributions into a generous pension.Those who want to retire in comfort should save more.

　　股票不是一种可将微薄的捐款转化成丰厚的养老金的神奇资产。那些想要在退休后颐养天年的人应该更加节俭。

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