2015考研英语阅读英文原刊《经济学人》：美国和中东

　　A risky bet

　　冒险一搏

　　When on August 8th jets from an aircraft-carrier in the Gulf bombed IS and halted its advance,critics argued that Mr Obama was doing too little, too late. America had sat by for two monthsand watched IS conquer parts of northern Iraq. A humanitarian disaster followed: thousandsof Yazidis, members of a Kurdish-speaking sect, fled into the mountains to escape thejihadists. IS tried to take Erbil, the capital of the Iraqi Kurds, threatening their peaceful,prosperous enclave.

　　当8月8日海湾的航空母舰上的飞机轰炸对IS进行轰炸时，批评者认为，奥巴马做得太少且太迟了。两个月来，美国坐视IS占领了伊拉克北部部分地区。人道主义灾难接踵而至：成千上万名为雅兹迪人的库尔德语教派的成员纷纷逃入深山以躲避圣战者。IS试图夺取伊拉克库尔德人的首府埃尔比勒，并威胁它们和平繁荣的土地。

　　Certainly, more will need to be done to root out the extremists. But Mr Obama deserves creditfor learning from past mistakes. He is the fourth American president in succession to bombIraq. In order to break that sequence, it is not enough just to unleash another round ofshock and awe. The jihadists would only regroup. A politically stable Iraq is needed, run by agovernment that is broad-based and popular.

　　当然，要想铲除极端分子还有很多事情要做。但事值得表扬的是奥巴马从过去的错误中学到了东西。他是连续第四位对伊拉克进行军事打击的总统。为了打破这种惯例，仅仅释放新一轮的震慑是不足够的。圣战主义者只会重新联合。这时迫切需要一个由具有广泛基础和受欢迎的政府管理下的稳定的伊拉克。

　　The one headed for the past eight years by Nuri al-Maliki, a member of the Shia majority, wasnothing of the kind. It alienated Kurds and excluded Sunnis, who make up a quarter of thepopulation. Some Sunnis came to support the extremists of IS, seeing them—oftenreluctantly—as the only defence against a brutal security apparatus. An all-out Americanattack on IS risks being seen as a sectarian move.

　　那个在过去八年里以多数什叶派的成员努里·马利基为首的政府就完全不属于这一类。它疏远库尔德人并把逊尼人排除在外，而他们占了总人口的四分之一。一些逊尼派开始支持IS极端分子，通常是不情愿地把他们看作是对抗残暴的政府安全机构的唯一屏障。美国对IS的全力攻击可能会被视为宗派行为。

　　Mr Obama's gamble has been to withhold all but minimal military support in order to forcepolitical change in Baghdad. That strategy has come at a cost. IS has consolidated its hold onIraq's second-biggest city, Mosul, and captured a dam that supplies much of the country withwater. It is well-armed and self-financing. But political change appears now to be under way inBaghdad. Mr Maliki may with luck be replaced as prime minister by Haider al-Abadi, a moreinclusive figure. The Americans alone did not usher Mr Maliki out. He made enemies amongIraqis, including in his own party. Iran also fell out with him. Even so, pressure from Mr Obamahelped see him on his way.

　　奥巴马的冒险在于仅以极少的军事支持来迫使在巴格达的政治变革。这一策略的执行已经付出了代价。IS已经巩固其对伊拉克第二大城市摩苏尔的掌控，并夺取了给该国大部分地区供水的大坝。它装备精良，并自给资金。但政治变革现在看来正在巴格达进行。马利基可能会幸运的被更具包容性的人物海德尔·阿巴迪取代作为总理。美国人单独并没有送出马利基。他在包括他自己的政党在内的伊拉克人中到处树敌。伊朗也与他闹翻了。即便如此，来自奥巴马的压力也有助于了他的离去。

　　Mr Maliki has been an awful prime minister. If Mr Abadi, also a Shia, appoints a cabinet thatincludes senior Sunnis in prominent positions, as seems likely, he will reduce popular supportfor the extremists, which should help persuade Sunni rebels to switch sides. That would pavethe way for concerted military action by the Iraqi government to regain territory lost to theextremists. With America acting as its air force, it should be possible to push back IS. Theextremists' numbers are limited and their equipment still no match for the West.

　　马利基一直是一个糟糕的总理。如果同为什叶派的阿巴迪先生任命包括显要地位的高级逊尼派人在内的一个内阁，他将减少民众对极端分子的支持，而这将有助于说服逊尼派反叛者转换立场。这将为由伊拉克政府的军事行动铺平道路，这一行动是为了从极端分子那夺回领地。借助美军的空中力量，它应该有可能打退IS。极端分子的人数有限，而他们的装备仍然根本不是西方的对手。

　　There are dangers here: if American bombing caused many civilian casualties, the extremistswould have more chance of portraying themselves as protectors of Sunnis against a hostileShia-led government and its infidel allies. American soldiers will still be in harm's way. Even inthe age of satellite-guided bombs, precise strikes depend on the presence of special forces toidentify targets. But a plausible path to forcing the jihadists out of Iraq would open up.

　　危险隐患在于：如果美国轰炸造成许多平民伤亡，极端分子将会有更多的机会将自己塑造成是对抗敌对的什叶派主导的政府及其异教徒盟友的逊尼派的保护者。美国士兵仍然面临伤亡。即使是在卫星制导炸弹的时代，精确打击仍依靠特种部队的存在以确定目标。但是将开启一条把圣战者驱逐出伊拉克道路。

　　The trickier question for Mr Obama is what to do if Iraq lives down to expectations, and fails toget a better prime minister or a more inclusive government. The jihadists' ambitions toestablish an Islamic caliphate cannot be tolerated. But an all-out assault may bolster Sunnisupport for IS and risk the disintegration of Iraq. The Kurds live in a more-or-less definedterritory: it is possible to imagine the formation of an independent Kurdish state. Sunnisand Shias do not. A break-up of the country could lead to bloodshed on an unprecedentedscale. The capital is shared by the sects, as are surrounding areas. America may then bereduced to conducting occasional punitive missions to keep IS contained.

　　对于奥巴马来说更棘手的问题是如果伊拉克不能如期得到一个更好的总理或更具包容性的政府那该怎么做。伊斯兰圣战者建立一个伊斯兰哈里发政权的雄心是不能被容忍的。而全力以赴的攻击可能会加强逊尼派对IS的支持并有招致伊拉克瓦解的风险。库尔德人生活在一片多少有些防御的领土：可以想像一个独立的库尔德国家的形成。国家的破裂可能导致前所未有的规模的流血冲突。首都如同周边区域一样是由各教派占有的。那样美国为遏制IS而进行的偶尔的惩罚性任务将会受到削减。

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